Bear Flag and Unfilled Gap.

I am not an expert in TA, not by a long shot. More of an arm chair technical analyst. But it looks like a bear flag to me. What do you think?

Also there is this area of unfilled gap which I have been writing about for a while and that is my target area before any bounce. Well, if the market decides to ignore that gap, I cannot argue with it but I think chances are high that tomorrow we will see another down day and maybe we will get a chance to fill that gap. That is also the area of strong support. All in all, not yet right time to play for the bounce.

If you look at the chart of yesterday, we were due for this green day. Should I call this an Analog? Nah! I don’t have much faith on Analogs. They are fun to watch when they happen, but it is suicidal to take action based on Analogs. We better have some other edge in trading or investing.

Nothing changed fundamentally in the world today. Despite the tension in Middle East, Crude did not budge much. Gold is hanging there by a thread. Euro land remained front and centre of the market. And no one is talking about the bigger mess that is America. But this constant up and down without a clear direction is draining for both the bulls and bears. You really have to be super smart to win in this market or luck or both. The last sell-off which took SPX from 1358 to 1314 has severely discouraged the bulls. Today it gained a mere 6 points which it may give back tomorrow and some more. If the plan is to discourage retail and then jack up the whole thing on super light volume, then it is successful. We will soon know. Even if we want to play for a bounce, it has to be super quick and for a very short time.

Every world leader is talking of growth and austerity. The leaders of the failed states like Greece or Spain are blaming Austerity for the ills of their country. But where is this “Austerity” that they keep talking about? They have not reduced spending. Per latest report, Greece did not reduce the number of its public sector employees that it agreed when it took the bailout. Why I am not surprised. What austerity measures Spain took or for that matter France or Britain? What % of GDP they saved through Austerity? What these countries have been doing all these years if they are talking about Growth only now? Politicians are same everywhere be it Spain or Uganda. May be now-a-days they are less corrupt in Uganda.

But these things will run its own course and nothing will change however we may shout. We just want to eke out a living and survive from these crooks. That’s it for today. Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please do re-tweet of you think it is useful.

Calvin Economics.

So far things are going as anticipated. No major surprise yet. The 1300 line held in SPX and the gap in SPY has not yet been tested. It is as if the last 15 trading seasons did not happen. Why last 15, we are back to where we were on January 31^st of this year. All the euphoria of March now seems like a distant dream. The moods are as gloomy as it can get and yet folks are so conditioned with the Bernanke tonic that there is no real fear or panic in the market. Here in North America, we have found a good scapegoat to blame, that is Europe and particularly Germany. Why Germany is refusing to wallow in the mud like the rest of the PIIGS? Why it is refusing to do the same thing that others have done, i.e. borrow and spend what they do not have. Yes, the poor Greeks may have lied and cheated and extorted and spent money which was not their in the first place but so what. After all, you can print money out of thin air. Hasn’t the great super power America done that over and over again? Nothing has happened to America, yet.  But do not despair, even if Germany is not ready to walk to path of destruction, the great nation of American is committed to kick the can down the road. Till the road ends. And all roads end somewhere sometime. But I do not know much. To understand it better, ask Calvin how it works.

Enough of macro economic nonsense. There are smarter people than me, like Bernanke or Kurgman, who know what is best for America. I am just concerned how I do save what little I have from these gentlemen and their brothers. This weakness / sell-off in market was well anticipated and  I wrote that there will one more bounce in the 1^st week of July. In the very short term, the question is, when does that bounce starts and when does it end.  I think it is possible that we will see little more selling. Then on Thursday the honorable manipulators will have something to hang their coats on from Europe. The last two days of window dressing can start in earnest whereby they can suck in the fresh 401K money coming in the market in the beginning of July. So I would expect bounce from Wednesday or Thursday till about the 1^st week of July. Do we play this bounce? It all depends. Are we investors? If so, stay away. Are we nimble traders? Then give it a shot. But remember, it is like picking up pennies in front of a turbo charged steam roller and the steam roller has aids. (Hat tip: Josh Brown). Short term, one hour charts are bit oversold and a bounce can happen.

The pattern is looking so similar to last year.

No need to match 2011 SPX with 2012 AUD and then match 2012 AUD with 2012 SPX. If you like analogs, simply match 2011 SPX with 2012 SPX. Such a rally is a selling opportunity but be aware of the levels.

I think July will be very exciting for the bears. Because unless there is pain and panic, Bernanke will not be able to hand out money. I am repeating myself 461 times now but so far my theory has proved right. There is only so much wiggle room left for these bright folks. It is like playing chess and anticipating the next move of your opponent. Only we are playing against those who want to fool us forever. With its ZRIP policy, the Fed is forcing Pension funds and ordinary investors to take unnecessary risk while on the other hand it provides free money to the TBTF banks to bet against. With no growth in income, job or economy, you can easily guess the direction of the market, no need for a PHD.

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Another Weekend Rambling.

Everywhere you look today there is a mention of how Chinese data is fake. Yawnnn! Have they discovered God in the laboratory? Of course almost everything that comes out of any Government is false. China may be faking 90% of what is reported but look closer at home. I think almost everything that USA reports are blatantly false. Be it BLS job data, GDP data, Housing data, Loan data or even serious things like WMD. Colin Powel even lied before the UN and US went to a false war on false pretext. So I fail to understand what the big deal about the false data out of China. Whoever believed it in the 1^st place please raise your hand. You must believe in tooth fairy as well!

Europe has been the front and centre of our life for the last few months. But so it had been in these very months of 2010 and 2011. Every June, from 2010, we feel that Europe is coming to an end. The fact is, America will falter before Europe. If Europe is struggling because of its massive debt, if Japan is in depression because of its 200% + Debt:GDP ratio, just wait when the chickens come home to roost in USA. With its $100 Trillion unfunded liability, many more trillions of dollars of Muni Bonds, almost 100% official debt to GDP ratio, destruction is staring at the face of USA. Many of my American friends think that USA is the best house in the bad neighbourhood. Actually, it is the best camouflaged booby-trap in a jungle.   

In a ZIRP environment, the only solution left to the Fed and politicians is to print more money. Already the money supply is running at 9% and yet we see deflation all around. The 10 year yield at the height of the economic crisis in 2008 was 2.10 % and now it is 1.67 %. So the bond market thinks that we are closer to a disaster now than we were at 2008. Every successive QE has demonstrated the law of diminishing return and just to get back to 1400 level of SPX, Bernanke will have to pump another trillion dollar. Even if he does that, nothing will change. And yet he will do it because his political master wants him to do so. The long term 30 year cycle of bond yield has topped now and in a matter of weeks and months, we will see yields rising.  Time to scale in TBT.

The short term target remains as we discussed and nothing has changed. We might see a lower low on Monday before we shoot up one more time. If I think there is a trade worth taking, I will send the information through Twitter. The real damage will come after that which will force the hands of Bernanke. Barring one day, June 4^th, there has been no panic in the market so far and just for this reason, I think selling is not over.

Those of you who swear by TA I have a nice article for you from Brian Shannon. Brian wrote a book on Technical Analysis:

The market is tricky, and it seems so even more lately. Technical analysis is often misinterpreted as an exact science, it is merely a tool which allows us to determine potential price based scenarios before we commit our money to a position.

Lately we have seen a lot of technical analysis misused. From a couple of closes below the 200 day moving average being interpreted as bearish, to a couple closes above the 50 day moving average being interpreted as bullish, or believing that one can buy the break above the “neckline” if the inverted head and shoulder pattern and then kick back and wait for the price objective to be met. These examples of ‘failed technical analysis’ are “proof” by doubters that technical analysis is useless. If you are going to succeed in the markets, risk management should be your first priority, regardless of what your timeframe is. I consider technical analysis to be the finest risk management tool that anyone can use if they really understand the psychology of the formation of patterns rather than focusing on pattern recognition alone.

Also from Tuesday’s post — As I often point out, moving averages should not be used as a stand alone tool, but they give us a great reference point to compare price to. We want to objectively observe how price acts around those levels on shorter term timeframes The same goes for trendlines, price patterns, oscillators, Fibonacci, etc We want to be aware of these key levels which motivate others to take action so we can ANTICIPATE the likely scenarios, but wait for price confirmation before we PARTICIPATE and put our money at risk.

Price is objective, we often we are not.

So let us be objective and be aware of the bigger picture. Time is running out.

Hope you are having fun in this beautiful weekend. Stay sharp and filter the noise. Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)  

Markets Hit By BullS--t.

For the better part of last seven days I am writing about a day like today.  From “ BullS**t Ad Infinitum” on June 14^th till yesterday, I have been urging readers not to get caught up in the meaningless gyration of the stock market and for those of you who cared to listen, congrats for being in cash and safe. This is my two pence service to the ordinary investors who are regularly taken to cleaners by the Wall St. Pandits and various talking heads.

I have written on last Monday that if SPX holds 1300-1320 level by this weekend, we will see a higher high. It was a bold statement at that time, when indexes were ripping higher to talk about a lower level. And yet we are almost there now. Yesterday I wrote about 1365 by 1^st week of July and a reader asked me if I meant 1265. I really meant 1365. May be even higher, up-to 1380. So it is a bold statement even now but  1^st we wait to  see where it ends in a day or two. Tomorrow we might see a dead cat bounce before some more selling. Ideally I would like it to fill the gap on the way up which I have circled below.

As much as the up move was a fake move, you cannot trust this down move either. Basically we have been in a range for quite a while as highlighted by the rectangle.

How the folks are going to react to today’s selling? Till yesterday, there were talks of end of correction, start of new bull phase because the market did not sell off after the QE disappointment. Will they short the market again now that GS has recommended its clients to short the market with a target of 1285? If GS has recommended a short trade I would rather take the opposite route, more so when short term cycle is indicating a bottom tomorrow. Let’s keep in mind that cycles are not an exact science and the bottom may well come next week. But taken everything together, I do not expect a huge sell from here immediately. As I said yesterday, there is still Quarter end window dressing to be done and beginning of the month 401K money to be stolen.

I am holding to the GLD for now to see where it goes till the 1^st week of July. I kept it as insurance, just in case Bernanke went crazy and declared QE. I do not expect it to do much till August but if gold falls below $1530, I will get out of it. On the other hand, I am thinking of taking a short position in Bond through TBT. That is going to be another long term play. Despite every effort Bernanke is making to keep the interest rate low, it will soon get out of control. Either interest rate goes up or inflation goes up. Bearded one has painted himself in a corner and may have only six more months. You see, I am more generous than Soros. He gave three months to the Europeans. I am giving six months to the Fed. I think it is going to far worse than what we have seen in 2008. This time there will be no country in the world to print and save.

I got quite a few response / email to my last night’s trivia and I must confess, you guys know your history. To sharpen your understanding of history, you may want to read the book” This time is different” .

Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)  

Reality Comes Back.

It’s nice to see a plan working out. It’s nice to have your stand vindicated. And now I can say with more conviction that we are going to follow the script of 2010 and 2011. More than anything else I did not suffer from any anxiety attack and chew my nails off thinking what Bernanke will do.

Precious metal sector and Bonds were giving signal for quite a while that QE is not yet on the menu. Does this mean there will be no more QE? You must be kidding to even think like that! Of course there will be QE and it will be on August 1^st.  It is like joining the dots and draw a figure. It is that simple once you understand the principles at work.

Let us keep our focus in various time frames. Longer term we are screwed. The challenge then will be how best to preserve the capital. More than anything I am worried about possible social unrest that all the unemployed, hungry and armed have-nots will unleash. They have nothing to lose. It has already arrived at so called developed nations like Greece or Spain.

Even intermediate term, it is not that difficult to predict that stocks will go up one more time. Question is when the intermediate term begins. Let us apply our collective commonsense again. If QE is due on August 1^st, then the intermediate term begins at August 1^st and ends with the US Presidential election.  So now we have narrowed ourselves in the short term, which is between now and July 30^th. Question is, do we care? As an investor, I would not but as a trader I would like to take advantage of the coming volatility. We do not care that the system is rigged. Only thing we care about is bring on the right side of the rigged market.

Coming back to short term, I expect to see some corrections for the next few days. I do not think it will be huge and by the 1^st week of July, we will possibly reach around 1365 in SPX. Give or take few points of course. That would be a good place to take a relatively risk free trade. But we are still another 10-12 days away and a lot may change in between. You may ask, if there is no QE why should the equities go up at all in the 1^st place? That is because of the 2^nd quarter ending book adjustments and beginning of the month 401K allocation from the pension funds. There is another fancy name for manipulation, it is called window dressing!

So now all distractions are out of the way and not much rumour to play around with. We just wait for the last bit of window dressing be done with. Till then we patiently wait and see all the useless gyration of the respectable manipulators and applaud them for saving the world. Before I sign off, here is a trivia. Send me the answer if you can. Which is the most respected and loved drug dealing family of the world. A hint, the family has retired from opium trade for over 60 years now.

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Patience, Dear Mr. Watson.

SPX did remain elevated on Wednesday, i.e. today and I think it is all due to the QE expectation. Stock Traders Almanac has this to say: One of the driving forces of this speculation was a report from Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s Chief U.S. Economist said that they “would be quite surprised if we saw no easing this week.” This was enough to stampede the bull all day. 

Disappointment is going to be huge if dear Uncle does not come up with something substantial. At today’s level, Ben cannot justify further liquidity pumping. I think SPX have to drop substantially, may be 1200-1250 level for the Fed to act. Even Greece did not go out of Euro zone. So where is the crisis?  As of today SPX reached and exceeded 1360 level. I was talking about this level when SPX broke 1284, not in very distant past. Only about 15 trading days back. But it took SPX much longer to reach here than I anticipated. I went out of the long position around 1340 level and after that SPX has moved in a range for about six trading days before breaking up. I am tempted to take up a short position tomorrow morning if the market opens higher but I have promised myself to stay away from any temptation. I think a better opportunity to short will come soon.

If Equities are going up expecting new QE, that enthusiasm has not been shared by the precious metal sector. Gold is having difficulties passing $ 1630 level. I may get out of the GLD position by the 1^st week of July, depending of course on the price action. If GLD remains at this level without breaking higher, it may be prudent to get out and re-enter at a lower level.

VIX was in red outside BB for most part of the day but closed in green. It has not yet triggered a sell signal and will do so when it closes inside BB. But I think in short term, VIX may fall further, to the level of 16.50 or so before it goes up again.

G20 achieved nothing except BRIC countries promised token donation to IMF. There was serious infighting and Canada lectured Europeans which they did not like. And Germany is not going to buy bonds of PIIGS either. Greece may discuss re-negotiation conditions as much as they like, but that is all wishful thinking.

So everything else now depends on the bearded mad scientist tomorrow. Alas he does not have the necessary cataclysm yet.

Let me finish by quoting Mr. David Weidner, legendary writer on Wall St. :

You can’t time the market: Also, technical analysis is phooey. Momentum plays are foolish. Anyone who wants to sell you a plan to beat the market is full of baloney. Investing schemes are exactly that. As I’ve written before, some people will tell you that you can hedge your bets. But insuring trades has never made sense to me. If you have to spend money to hedge a bet, it probably means you can’t afford to invest the money.

When it comes to markets, what can go wrong, will, and bubbles happen. The problem is we never know which is which until it’s too late.

Too often, we’re caught up in the daily fluctuations in our portfolios. What really matters is what the investments are worth when we need them.

Mutual funds are a waste of time: The fund industry was my first beat in New York. Here’s how it was explained to me: You buy a fund. The fund trails its index but you pay a management fee and other fees that are usually diminishing returns. You will pay a fee to buy the fund, or exit it, or both. Index and exchange-traded funds are the best thing to happen to investors since cash.

Hope you are keeping your powers dry. Patience is the key in such markets which are ruled by rumours and greed. Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)  

The Great Game.

I quote from Mark Grant:

“It is the Great Game. They try to lure you into their various traps; I try to keep you out. They offer headlines from countless sources and I try to tell you what things really mean. They make use of a giant propaganda machine and I chant alone in the wilderness. They make up stories and present them as accurate data and I try to give you the facts. They want your money and I want you to “Preserve your Capital.” They are as diabolical in their pursuits as Professor Moriarty was in his. They are the political masterminds and I am a sort of Sherlock Holmes trying to analyze and conclude one case after the other. You may listen or you may not but I pay for my own supper while others ask for their compensation first. It is their Game, my Game; it is the Great Game”.

“Has all my instruction been for naught? You still read the official statement and believe it. It's a game, dear man, a shadowy game. We're playing cat and mouse; cloak and dagger.”

                                           -Sherlock Holmes, A Game of Shadows

I could not have said it any better. 

Bottom line, “ Cash”, at least till FOMC is over and we see the market reaction. I am very certain that the bearded one will not come up with candies for the market on June 20^th but who knows. At least I am not taking any bet on the outcome and am content to sit it out. 

Just like last Sunday, Euro spiked up and faded thereafter. But precious metal sector did not rally. Even when Equities held up for the day, credits was down and bonds were up. A correlation between SPX and Euro shows that the sync broke today.

Normally in such situations, either one catches up. Because of the market sentiment with Euro, I think in the very short term, there are less chances of Euro going up. Logically therefore, SPX will catch it downward but it may remain elevated till Wednesday. Question is how much down SPX will go from here? And therein lays the answer for week after. If SPX can hold 1300-1320 level this week, the next move would be higher. But that will be a bull trap, not a real up-move. More so if it comes without QE. If you are confused, just remember that we will have chop fest for the next two weeks but the selling is not over.

My take therefore is the same as last weekend. Nothing has been fixed. Market cannot go up without additional liquidity. Till that comes, the risk is to the downside in intermediate time frame although in short time frame, we may see higher highs. A heaven sent opportunity for the day traders but for a normal investor it is the worst kind of nightmare possible.

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Greek Vote: What Happens Next.

So now we have the Greek vote done with.
It transpired exactly as I thought. Greeks elected pro-bailout parties because they want other Europeans to pay for their debt. They elected the same political parties who are responsible for this mess in the 1st place but I suppose they have no alternative. The Fox is in charge of the hen house. What happens next?
FT Alphaville has this informative piece:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/17/1047971/greece-the-post-election-questions/
And what about the pop in Euro? Oh that? It is already climbing down. Folks will soon realise that there will not be any Central Bank money pumping come Monday and Ben is going to disappoint as well on June 20.Nothing will come out of G20 as well. It could not have been any worse for the bulls in the short term. Things did not change and the bad news is not bad enough.
Lets see where it ends by next week.
I am happily sitting out of the whole drama.

Irrational Exuberance?

Last Monday morning TNX (CBOE Interest rate 10 year note) opened at 1.63 and SPY opened at $ 134.17. This Friday TNX closed at 1.59 and SPX closed at $ 134.14. So basically SPY was flat for the week while the yield on 10 year fell another 3.5%.

Which also means, bonds and equities are moving in opposite direction once again. I have seen this many times and situations like these are not good for investing. While the bond market, which is way bigger than equity market, is worried about deflation and uncertainty, equities are showing exuberance expecting another QE. For equities, bad news is good news. That if things get bad enough, central bankers will come in with more free money. It is not a rational thinking for growth and prosperity. Japan is an example where Nikkei fell from 38000 to 9000 and like a bug in search of a wind-shield; Japan will possibly default before Europe blows up.

So what are the options we have before us? Greece is caught between the proverbial devil and deep see. If the Greeks decide that they will continue to remain debt slave for some more time and elect the same political parties which are responsible for the mess in the 1^st place, then there is no need for action from the central banks. Do equities go up further from here? If status quo is maintained, will Bernanke come out swinging on June 20^th with QE? I have my doubts.

On the other hand, if Greeks decide to try their luck with the new hooligan and ditch Euro, (which I don’t think they will. They want their cake and eat it too. Most of them want other Europeans to pay for their debt)   there is no limit where the ball will stop rolling. Is Europe ready to call the bluff? It is a game of chicken and do we want to bet our capital on the outcome of it?

The Spanish bailout did nothing to improve the market confidence and unless there are few trillions thrown to the bon fire, it will not budge. Either way, we are screwed. It is just a question of time. I expect that the politicians and central bankers will try till it does not work anymore. You just saw what Obama just did to buy the Hispanic votes. With a stroke of a pen, he changed the definition of what is legal and illegal. Why do you think he will not pump the stock markets when the 401K of the voters is tied to the stock market? The Banksters have got the politicians by their short and curly. With each fall in share value, comes more money at ZRIP. These guardians of American freedom, TBTF banks, borrow at 0%, buy 30 year treasury and get return at 4% and give back the same treasury to the Fed as collateral.  Take few trillions of dollars, do this circular trade for few years and you are guaranteed of huge bonus and you are a genius.  Banks are healthy again even when the assets they are holding are all rotten and valueless. That is why they changed the FASB rules in the 1^st place.

How we trade and invest in such environment without losing our shirts is the challenge of our lifetime. That is why I keep telling that “Cash is King”. It does not matter if the equities go up or down for one day or for one week. So long we do not have a sustainable trend, it is better to stay out. That is the reason; I am staying out of the market till June 22^nd no matter how high the market goes. I stayed away from shorting the market when SPX broke 1284, 200 DMA and told everyone who cared to listen, not to short.  And this is my advice now. Just don’t do anything and wait for things to settle down. I may be wrong and may be too cynical but I have seen too many bad things and I can feel that the end game has started. Better be careful than greedy.  

At least I do not have any anxiety over the outcome of some stupid election. Greece has defaulted many times in the past. In fact it was the 1^st city state to default on its sovereign debt. So another Greek default will not be the last. Nor for that matter a default by Spain (16 times in History, much more than Greece) or France or for that matter US of A. Don’t be surprised, American has defaulted six times in its History and will do again in future. Only the form of default will change.  You can read it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default .  So let’s enjoy the beautiful weekend with family and friends while we can. Life is too short to chase useless stuff.

Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance) Lets have the conversation going.

BullS**t Ad Infinitum

Before we get serious, let us laugh out loud seeing the sheer stupidity all around and how the market is moving like drunken sailor with a bottle in hand. My apologies to the drunk sailor for inappropriate comparison. 

On Monday the market was down, on Tuesday the market was up, on Wednesday the market was down, today the market was up and any takers for tomorrow? If I have to guess, I would write: trend is down tomorrow. However, in my defense, I did write yesterday that if Euro holds 1.2550 levels, we will see green day.  Not that I know any better. Sometimes we just get lucky. I think I wrote sometimes back, better be lucky than smart!

But you have to give credit to the Boyz. The rumour was brilliant and like true pavlovian dogs  the market spiked up. As Josh Brown says :” Central bank rumors are like big boobs - some are real and some are fake, but most guys are happy to play either way.”  I feel bad for the guys who were short in the morning and I still maintain that there are lots of bad shorts out there who are trapped. Folks who are short from 1284 level. And it also demonstrates that the market believes in coming QE and is waiting to jump on the bandwagon. It is not a question of whether it will come; it is, when it will come.  And is the selling / correction over?  Again, my feeling is, not yet but we are getting close.

Today’s rumour fueled tape fudging was strictly for the day traders. If you are a normal human being, looking to safeguard your assets and investment, you should totally ignore it. It’s fake, fake and fake.

We are still in that triangle which I showed yesterday. I did not do anything new to it apart from today’s market action and that is all the TA you need to know.

There are few takes from all these nonsense:

·         They will again try to solve the problems of the world with more debt and liquidity because that is the only thing they know.

·         At some point deflation will give way to inflation and the monetization of debt will start in earnest. Already the Fed is buying the Treasury Notes it sold just hours back. It happened today and yesterday and they are not even trying to hide it anymore.

·         With inflation come higher interest rates. The bond trade is about to turn upside down.  Trillions are invested in bonds, much more than in equity. And the pain will be felt many times over.

·         They are desperate to maintain the status quo and losing the game. They know it and are scared. Already there is talk of capital control in Europe. Worse things will follow.

Pay particular attention to what is happening to US bonds. Europe does not really matter. I think we will see the high of TLT by June 22^nd.  If I had any investment in bonds or bond funds, I would get out in any new bond rally.  For now, just avoid the temptation to chase the momentum like plague. I keep repeating, we are not going to miss anything worthwhile and the only rule of the game: Do not lose capital. I am not touching anything in the market with a 20 ft bargepole till end of next week.

Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)