The market knows exactly when to screw the most longs and when to kill and bury the most shorts. It will possibly do the exact opposite what most people agree on. Do you remember the debt ceiling drama of last year? I do because I was burnet. Everyone expected and knew that the Republicans and Democrats will ultimately agree at the last moment and the debt ceiling will be raised. We all expected the share market to continue the rally of the previous week. The market was up till then. And then, Boom. The market tanked big time after the debt ceiling was raised. Looking back I now realize that the boat was loaded too much on one side and that’s why it sank.
So what it will be this coming week? Will Greek bailout sail out of the gate? What is your take? Since it is a long weekend, why not send some well thought out comments. Looking forward to it.
I've been burned so many times I plan on being burned again... Thats as thought out as I get... I'm short VIA March puts on 3 major indexes
ReplyDeleteHang in there man. I have been writing more about economics lately (that's how boring trading is right now lol!). It could just be one of those years like 2003 where the market almost went up every week for the whole year.
ReplyDeleteIf the so called deal is spinned positve all day Monday--I expect futures to ratchet up to extremes by the time our market opens on Tuesday. Then when all the late bulls are in and late bears have
ReplyDeleteshort covered------we could get a flash crash.
The debt ceiling issue was really dramatic back then. The media painted a picture of doom and gloom, as if the world as going to end. And then booom, the debt ceiling was raised, and the market tanked. If I'm not wrong, the debt ceiling needs to be raised again sometime this year, any ideas?
ReplyDeleteI think trading is very interesting this year and if we can get our heads out of the sand and look at charts in an unbiased manner, we can make a lot of money. Unfortunately, a majority of us will stay in the sand, so that the rest of us can make money. It's the nature of the game. Long AGQ, AG, TSL, JKS, MOBI, since Monday-Thursday. Sold MHR on Friday for a nice little gain. Will probably sell most longs this week and go long FAZ at 24 and change.
ReplyDeleteDid we think too much? 1161-1261=100, 1205-1367 (guess) =161.8, IF we get a 38% wave 4 to 1291, we will end wave 5 at 1391 with wave 1=5. Could it REALLY have been so easy, we just couldn't believe it? Of course it was all done with Monopoly money, but it appears that even Ben's funny money works as long as no one asks the hard questions.
ReplyDeleteIt might be just the people I follow, but for the last few weeks almost all have been calling for a reversal. That's probably why we haven't had one. I guess sometimes well enough should be good enough. The market is trending so just trailing stops on indexes with the P-SAR and hoping that the initial gap down does not blow through the stop.
ReplyDeleteIts anybody's guess, no-one knows what Greece, the Fed or the ECB will do. Wait and see what the market offers up, don't try to predict the future when it is out of your control more than usual.
ReplyDeleteBe prepared to be long or short as you have been to date.
enjoy your post a lot.
ReplyDeleteYes, indeed with the Banks of Japan and China now joining for printing ink along with the Fed, the ECB the Bank of England,even the Swiss National Bank and all this cheap money used to prop up markets there is a pain risk to the upside until this bring about more inflation in emerging markets and the prices of oil and other commodities start again being too expensive for a so called moderate growth and then, can turn out to be deflationary
ReplyDeleteBut in the mean time the market may go up with only very shallow pull back until the US elections
since..its now all about currency...dont u think AUD\USD is making higher highs..n higher lows....in daily chart it has gapped up today ...and is staying above resistance....
ReplyDelete"If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary-wise; what it is it wouldn't be, and what it wouldn't be, it would. You see?" -- Alice (a natural contrarian)
ReplyDeleteI beginning to think the market is in Wonderland and Alice is in control.
CAH
I finally decided to not play the contrarian with the Budget deal as well, and was burned also.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I am back to my roots, and trying it again, short the SPY as it appears the Titannic is on the side of a Greece bailout (and who doesn't think we see DOW 13,000 Tuesday?)