It was another dull day in a boring market. Only the “short
oil trade” did well. Oil closed below $ 86 and slowly but surely it is going to
test its support at $ 80. It might take some time to reach there but that is
the only way for now.
In the morning, I sent out an email urging readers to wait
for “short silver trade” a little while more. I sent out email highlighting the
level for short. And as mentioned in
last night’s email, I am looking for NDX to attempt to reach somewhat higher
level before taking a position with the ETF mentioned in the email.
From January all trade ideas and updates will be sent out by
email to the subscribers and alert of the email by Twitter.
Back to markets, they are being propped up by hope and
greed. None of that is a good strategy and yet I cannot short the market with
any conviction. That is the irony of central bank manipulated market. The only thing to do in such situation is to
learn patience and not front run. Look
out for danger signals and be safe.
One such danger signal is coming from AUD. From the latest COT data we see that
speculative long position in AUD is at record high.
As you know, non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at
the turn and commercials on the correct side.
The only question I have is how long we have to wait for the turn.
Reason being, the correlation between AUD and SPX is very close.
Moreover the cycle of AUD is pointing down.
In fact copper is also giving a sell signal short term and
Dr. Copper normally shows the way to the equities market. That’s all fine and dandy but I would like to
see some price action confirming that this charade is about to end. To start with,
can we have SPX close below 1400 please?
How many days are left for this lame duck congress to solve
the mess? Less than five you say? What are the chances that everything will be
resolved by then? I don’t know and although I think more selling ahead, I am
not going to front run. As I have mentioned in last night’s email, we have
other things to do which have better risk return ratio.
Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Please forward it to your
friends and colleagues who might enjoy the post. And as the holiday season is
upon us in full swing, please do keep in mind the Amazon link in the blog,
should you plan to buy anything from Amazon. Have a wonderful evening everyone.
It is sad that so many fell for the hype of taking out mortgages and loans and persuaded into thinking that it was to their own benefit. In actual fact their debt and misery was, and always will be, for the creation of wealth and prosperity for the bankers and cash advance lenders. A slow drip feed from your pay packet that redistributes wealth from the bottom to the top. Even if you have managed to pay off that debt millstone from around your neck your "investment" is worth no more than before because of inflation.
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