Monday 27 June 2011

I think what I think.

A new week. But the old Greek drama continues. The market has been selling off for eight weeks now. So where do we stand. I am thinking that:
      ·         Although S&P 500 has sold off 7.5% from the June 1st, the fear factor is not high enough to call a bottom. In that logic, I am thinking that we shall see continuation of the sales.
  •        It is possible that we shall see a breach of the 200DMA and then the panic factor comes in play. 
  •    It is possible that by Wednesday, 29th June 2011, we shall see a huge sell off coinciding with the Greek vote. 
  • Because of the uncertainty regarding the Greece situation, the Euro has been selling off. Along with Euro other risk assets like Gold , Silver, Oil etc are also soft.
  • All these commodities along with the stock markets will possibly reach bottom by Wednesday when the market will realize that the Greek vote is inconsequential.
  • We would possibly see a summer rally, in opposite thinking of end of Fed induced liquidity, when retail investors might think of leaving the market.

So I am thinking and  I am marking Wednesday, 29th June as the date of reckoning.

But if the VXO does not reach high 20s by then, I would still think that the sell is not over yet. In short term stock markets are ruled by greed and fear. As of now, there is very little fear. the retail investors have turned bullish as evident from the put/call ratio.Unless we see fear and panic, there is no point going long. So if 29th June gets pushed to 5th July, so be it. I would rather wait.

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