Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Market Analysis , 3rd August.

Trading in stock market is not a science, however much we may try with our TA and other leading indicators. It is more about managing greed and fear and controlling emotions.

Today morning, SPX started at 1254. The futures were in positive territory before the start. But the relentless selling just continued as if the end of the world has been announced. Given that economic news was not that great either. Europe was getting sizzled with bond rates in Italy and Spain reaching new high.

On the other side of the pond, Mastercard reported excellent results and other tech. results have been above par. Debt ceiling issue has been resolved and although the economy is not in great shape, we have not seen the catalyst for the bear market yet.

But the mood was as bad as one could ever imagine. Everyone was enquiring if they should sell everything and be done with it. It was the burning smell of capitulation all around. That is when you know that we have a bottom. It is too much and too fast in the absence of any real negative event. 

The SPX travelled all the way down to 1235 and came back up to close in green at 1260. It has travelled 44 points in all in the day. No mean feat. The market action does signify a reversal of some sorts. How long and how far it will go, remains to be seen.

I added to my longs and twitted about it.  Just to show how oversold we are, I have borrowed the following chart from Philstockworld.

I am long term bearish but short term bullish. I think we are at the tipping point but will just hang on for few more weeks. 

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  1. Interesting. I want to hear more about that 'tipping point', and hanging on for a few more weeks. Looking forward to it.

  2. In the past couple of days you have been short term bullish, you might want to give caution to the readers as you must be getting burned with your long positions!

    You should try to indentify the bottom before going long and talking about the general market analysis. This is where TA is usefull.

  3. why do u delete my posts everytime when I question your analysis?

  4. I have never deleted any comment. you are free to question my analysis. I am not God and this blog is just my thoughts. I can and may well do mistake.Only way I can learn is by listening to others.

  5. You are a Great while writing in the blogs it is awesome I liked it too much good and informative thanks for the sharing.