Monday 10 October 2011

Columbus Day Short Squeeze

That was a jolly good show. But what the pundits are forgetting to mention is that economic fundamentals did not change from last week. Team Markozy or Sarkel (your take) just agreed to agree without a detail plan yet and the entire song and dance is being played by HFTs without a shade of retail participation. The TBTF banks and the likes of GS or  MS really need to generate profit to cover their zero value assets. By the way the biggest gain was made in stocks which had the highest short interest.
 The bond markets are not impressed yet with Greek one year yield around 150% ! I have never seen anything like this before. That market is more than convinced about a Greek default and yet everything seems to rosy. What am I missing?
The only silver lining I can think of is the coming earning season. A good earning season will justify a short year end rally but most likely it will be the last of the bull rally when it comes.
For now I am happy to sit outside till I am convinced that we have a bottom. This week was the week of killing the bears, next will week will be the season of hunting the bulls. 

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