I don’t want to sound vain but I did write last Sunday that both Apple and the market in general are due for rebound. “I think from TA point of view Apple and the market in general is due for a bounce but such a rally should be sold.”
Yesterday I said: “What I find interesting is that we can consider it as test of previous lows which it did not break. Now it should have a test of the previous highs, at least which is the theory. Only when that test fails and it reverses, we can short with confidence.
And there we have it all.
Apple blew away the street prediction with almost doubling its profit and the shares of Apple are up $ 40 in after market. SPY is up over 0.5 %. Of course we will have to wait for the market to open tomorrow and much can change overnight. But taking everything into consideration, it is highly likely that we will have a re-test of the April 2 high before we roll over. And this is precisely the reason I am not short yet. Hope you all are in cash and cushy!
DOW closed above the psychological 13000 mark and SPX gained almost half of yesterday’s loss. So there is not much downside momentum yet. They are keeping both the bulls and bears interested in the game.
It is tiring to repeat same thing every day and you may also be feeling bored reading the same stuff. But the objective is not to lose money and not to write something sensational like global conspiracy etc or scare the hell out of readers. We want to cut the noise and follow the confirmed trend. No fancy charts, no analog, no Elliot wave analysis, no macroeconomic bull s**t.
The bottom line is: stay on the sideline and stay in cash.
Thank you for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.ca/ . Please forward it to your friends and invite them to join me in twitter. (@BBFinanceblog).
eric swarts has done another good analysis..do u think its possible to SnP to go to 1420 and hit that Median line of his...or may be a little more
ReplyDeleteI have stopped reading Eric Swarts because I think his only trick of the trade are his fancy charts and Analogs.
DeleteI have been writing that unless we re-test the earlier high and fail, we cannot call a trend reversal. I think we still have a chance of testing 1450 but risks are very high.
This is an interesting observation. I believe Eric has turned bullish based on his 1995 Meridian line analog. What's your take on his recent change of mind?
DeleteThanks.
I have been reading Eric from his early days but have stopped reading it now. i think he is a gentleman, draws very nice charts, finds interesting analogs but he is clueless when the market does not follow his analog. One does flip flop when one has no conviction.
DeleteI'm not so sure that 1420 is automatically in the cards. Tomorrow will be interesting to see how we close. We have had trouble with breaking the 20dma. Would it be wise to short a reversal off the 20dma if it comes?
ReplyDeleteNothing is guaranteed. But the markets are moving as per script. Only when a test of the high fails, it would be safe to short.
DeleteMaybe for you it is tiring to repeat what you see as an evidence. But for your readers it is a chance to have an every day access to your insights about the evolution of the markets.
ReplyDeleteYour technical analysis and knowledge of calendar effects are always excellent. You have been spot on many times and I believe you are still correct for predicting this last bounce and what is coming after.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Greetings from Belgium!
Thank you David. You made my day.
DeleteNice site and to the point, with close to accurate posts without all the BS of most other sites.
ReplyDelete