- Election in France and Greece. May have some impact on Euro in short term. But commercials are still heavily long Euro.
- Monday there will be settlement of about $ 9 billion Operation twist. Most likely markets will be in Red.
- Expect one more push up in May 1 and 2.
- McClellan Oscillator has reached that danger zone.
Do we still want to bet on more straight up?
- Will watch carefully the test of the highs. If it fails , may be time to start building up short position.
BB, regarding your observation regarding EUR: When checking the COT on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=w1 it looks as if "commercial hedgers" and "large traders" take the opposite sides. But it seems to be the large traders (whoever that is) who move in cycle with the EUR index. They are short the EUR at the moment. The commercial hedgers are long, but seem to move contra-cyclic. Could you please comment on that? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThe total volume of large traders are less than 10% of the total volume of the commercial. Commercials have been long for many months now on a continuous basis and that is worry some. What are they expecting and when. These are the guys who run the world. I can only guess that they are expecting a huge QE sometime soon.
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