Tuesday 28 February 2012

Apple A Day Keeps Bears Away.

Or whatever.  The stock market keeps grinding higher and everyone hates this market. The bears hate it because it is grinding them to dust. Bulls hate it because they are under invested and would like to go back and invest more. Brokers hate it because there is no action. We are all calling a top for months now and yet nobody has seen a top.

Now that DOW has closed over 13000 and SPX over 1370, do we throw away all the rules of TA, cycle analysis and just believe in the powers of Central Bankers? Buy the F**king dip?  I am no bear and I have no problem joining the buy program only if I could convince myself that this time is different. That all the divergences do not matter!  That this time is truly different!  The path of least resistance is up-ward. So the next we hear is DOW 13500 and SPX 1400.

Look at the 5 min. chart of SPX.
In the normal course I would have said it is a double top. But now I don’t know what to say.

The summation index (NYSI) is turning down and in the past it has been followed by market corrections.
(Source: Ciovacco Capital)
Will it be different this time?

J Wagner of FXCM has the following chart;
Mr. Wagner thinks AUD has some juice left. 
Look at the weekly chart of AUD.
I am thinking that AUD is at the top of the range and not much room to run.

If we have to guess the Top based on TA, then there is no better person to guess than our good friend Cobra.

As per his measured move target, SPX can go up-to 1376.

In the mean time, the trend table continues to be long.
Do not front run unless you know what you are doing. Market is smarter than all of us. Too many of us are calling for the top and reversal and it will come when we least expect it. While we wait for the market to show us the next bend, here are some interesting reads:

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  1. BB I look forward to your commentary every night.. Thank you its great reading

  2. I like the post title ;-)

    posting comment here is biggest pain in ass here. wordpress open id is broken. the captcha is unreadable to someone with 20/20 vision & 24 inches monitor.

  3. Here are some words of wisdom. Don't predict, react. IWM is in a channel. Breakout above 83.25 go long, breakdown below 81, go short. Are you going to 100% make money? No. If it is a false move, go the other way. Oh crap, it's a whipsaw. Paraphrasing here from Ed Seykota, if you don't want any whipsaws, don't trade. If you don't understand these words of wisdom, you shouldn't be trading.

  4. BB, AUD /USD has broken the bull flag resistance line in 5 hour chart ..

  5. bb - still long silver, but will take at least partial profits today. It's been a nice ride, maybe probably time for a short breather now. May take a dip into FAZ at 24.5 or so, today. GL on your trades.

  6. Alpha, I fully agree with you. Thats why I have the trend table everyday now. Better to follow the trend.
    TraderSU, Yes posting comment is a pain in blogger. hope they fix it.
    Jonak.Regarding AUD, parabolic move ups are followed by parabolic move down. So let us see.
    Win, great call mate. You should post more often.