Wednesday 1 February 2012

Market Never Drops!

It is becoming kind of tiring to write about the coming pull-back in equities which does not come. Just like those days of QE1 or QE2 when the mantra was JBTFD.

It was expected that SPX will retest the highs of January 26 and only when it fails to take out the 1333, we can call it a top. This pattern is repeated many times as you can see from the SPX daily chart.
So the ball is in the court of the bulls. Either they take out 1333 or we roll over.

Few days back I showed the following SPX weekly chart of Gabor which said that after a weekly doji, SPX will make one final push.

Although we are in the middle of the week, the SPX weekly chart is looking somewhat similar.
I think tomorrow and day after we will see 1333 being challenged again and market will be choppy to say the least. However if 1333 is taken out, then it is possibly game over for the bears.

The FX proxy for risk assets AUD has reached the channel resistance. While it can break through and move higher, taking equities and gold along with it, the cycle does not support such a move.
Talking of cycles, the short term bottom for equities was due around January 20 which did not materialize. Now the short term top is due around February 2-8. Cycle tops and bottoms are not written in stone and they fluctuate. It has to be taken in conjunction with many other factors including market sentiment.  And talking of sentiments, here is an interesting chart from SentimenTrader:
Lets see what tomorrow brings.


  1. Technically, bears are never wrong, just early. Wait you can say the same thing about bulls. I guess the trick is not going broke in the meantime.

  2. The title of your post made me laugh. Lately, I like to say, "even when the market is down, it finds a way to go up"

  3. today u can close ur longs...tomorrow India is going to be positie in the orning..and then start going down ...that means SnP will open negative add shorts today...cheers

  4. Trend Trading, thanks.
    D, I couldn't agree more.
    Jonak, I am not sure I understand what you mean. If you can add some thing more please.


  6. Thanks Ringo. Yes the whole of 2012 The Fed and ECB will print in some form or other. 2012 is going to be the best year for bulls.