Monday 5 November 2012

Monday Musings.

Very soon the uncertainty as to who will guide America to bankruptcy will be over.  Some pundits are calling for a win for Romney and in the support of their prediction, they are showing the strength of the sectors which are supposed to be Republican friendly.  I suppose there is confirmation bias everywhere. I am sure Democrats are seeing signs of their victory as well. Irrespective of whoever wins, the market’s path has already been defined. If I may draw your attention to the fact that despite the sell- off of last Friday, the lows of September 26th is still intact. SPX cash is grinding up and will most likely continue to grind up for till Op.Ex.

While we have an initial sell signal (not confirmed) the indices are oversold on s short term basis and odds are high that we will see a bounce.  We do not have a negative divergence yet for calling the top but we are coming close. The following chart shows the SPX position short term.
(H/T Lance Roberts).
Another 50-60 points melt up in the next 7-10 trading sessions are quite likely and possible but I am not risking my money to chase it.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index is showing a topping pattern.

As you can see, it takes time for this divergence to play out and therefore do not expect indices to roll over tomorrow. But warning signs are there.

While I am expecting a correction, I am not looking for the end of the world here, not yet. I expect a correction in the magnitude of 15%-20% between Mid-November to Mid-December.  If we get that, it will be time to get long again. And I have decided to stay out of Nat.Gas till this big correction plays out. The time to go long commodities will come by end of the year and that includes precious metal as well.

So right now I am in cash and cushy. I am not chasing the upside because I am not sure how far it will go. And it is better to wait out 7-10 trading sessions than to suffer heartburn.  Hope you guys are keeping your powder dry and doing your research.

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  1. BBF, fabulous column and I read you every day.

    I'm also expecting a 15-20% correction but I have it scheduled later, late Nov at the earliest, timed according to Eurodollar COT 51/52 week advance (credit to Tom McClellan), also $MMTW cycle (, which should have a month to run up.

    Do you have strong reasons to think it will come earlier? I'd be interested to read them.


    1. It is quite possible that the correction will come by last week of November, but in the big scheme of things, a week here and there will not matter much and we cannot be perfect with the timing. Just praying to get the direction right. Along with cycle of SPX I am also looking at the cycle of Euro/JPY which top by middle of November.
      By the way, is it possible to get the Eurodollar COT chart of Tom?
      Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

  2. My take on the next week or so...If Obama wins we rally until end of year...If Romney wins (or Republicans take control of the Senate) we sell off hard until end of year...The FOMC/Bernanke pulls support...Games over !