Monday 13 February 2012

Same Old Story.


Volume of SPX was the lowest we have seen for this year and we have not seen much volume this year so far anyway. That says something. There is no clear direction in the market as yet. While index opened higher on the back of Greek vote, it failed to take out the previous high. Is it a double top?
We will know tomorrow which way the wind is blowing. In the mean time the Analog is looking like this;


Apple made a new high today. Possibly it is the only reason COMPQ keeps grinding higher. However Chris Kimble has a very interesting chart for Apple.

Will Apple be able to break this seventeen year old trend line and keep going higher?  There is huge euphoria in the main stream media that Nasdaq has reached the eleven year old high. As if that is something great. Add all the inflation and cost of money and we are worse off eleven years after. And thank Ben for reaching this milestone after eleven years.

Euro gave back all the post Greek vote gain and some more. Gold is just hanging on but barely just.  But with momentum so strong and liquidity so much, it may not before end of March / 1st week of April that we may see real downturn. Any correction at this point will be a short term buying opportunity. But at least a 70-90 point’s correction in SPX can be expected at this point of time, staring most likely from tomorrow and lasting till about February 24-28. I think there will be one more rally after that which will take us till end of March.
I am changing the way I present this blog. Because I have failed with my last call, I better stick to the basics and stop showcasing my trading records. I need to improve my trading skills and to that end, I need to be more modest. Accordingly, I will not be posting the trading journals till such time I am satisfied with my performance.

I have made some wonderful friends here and all the comments and suggestions will hopefully make me a better trader. I will continue to share my ideas and thoughts about the market and would request you, dear readers to share your thoughts as well.

Thank you for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/. Trade safe.

16 comments:

  1. thanks BB, come EVERY night for your inside and tidbits.

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  2. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us.
    I really appreciate your analysis. We all have had failed calls in the past. No big deal.

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  3. BBF,

    Looking at things over the weekend most indicators were signaling the start of a possible downward move. Strangely the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYSE) was calling for an upward market move. Looking at $NYSE, the CCI and Slow Stochastics indicators had spiked up on 2/3 but had been moving steadily downward all last week. After 2/10, they were both at the bottom of their graph and ready for the upward move today. GRC

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  4. Dont be too hard on yourself. You will post trades when you are 100% right all the time? Is that even possible? Better to post failing trades with stop levels and declare when stopped out and take a shot again when conditions are better. Thanks for the blog and analysis.

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  5. To be credible, one must be open and honest. All traders know that trades work only about half the time. Even if your backtested plan works out 80% of the time, going forward, the stops will get hit and the win rate is lower than expected. Sure one can have streaks, but they go both ways. I think the best blogs are those who admit that they have losing trades, and demonstrate how to deal with them. THAT is the most useful information a trader can have.

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  6. Hello
    You are writing a excellent post. There is nothing wrong with having miss a call. Manufact you did not miss e call you where just a tad earlier in calling it. But hey you are calling a market while the deck of card is fixed by Ben the Helico and other central banks who are flooding the markets with unprecedented amount of liquidity seen in history. All in all I believe you have just about the best posts on the Internet. You had made great call last year even do the deck was full of rotten cards so hope you kept posting have a grat day and weldone job sir.

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  7. Thanks bb

    One question could you please let me know why you are expecting a correction that is at 70-90 points of SPX?

    For timeline i have similar as yours.

    For the last six trading days. SPX range from 1327-1355, market slowly grinding higher and it seems to me it is a distribution process. MM pushes APPL higher but the market breadth is not as high as last year May.

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  8. I can think of no better compliment to give than that of saying that my day is not complete unless I have read your informative and thoughtful post.
    It takes courage to publicize one's trading journal. If you follow fundamentals and TA you have not been wrong but this market is not "as usual". You should keep you journal and not let these choices affect you as they do not reflect on you personally in this game of chance.

    Betty Boop

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  9. Thank for your great work

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  10. ummm, even a clock is right only twice a day. Don't be so hard on yourself. Just call it as you see it and if you are wrong, analyse it and try to do better next time and move on to the next idea.

    You are not the only person to be thinking about a top here, and there in lies the problem.

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  11. Don't worry,its a rigged market,they think retail is going to come rushing in,I say no way, ben b is in a box,gas almost 4 bucks a galion in niagara falls ny.lets see what the retail is sales are today

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  12. Thanks folks for your encouraging words and support. I will try to improve upon.

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  13. Aussie \USD has managed to find support at channel lower lines...what are your thoughts on that ....i think i can also locate a wolfe wave in AUD\USD chart ....hourly chart ...showing a higher target of 1.080+

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  14. Like I said in an earlier post...Don't ever change.. love the posts and look forward to them!

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  15. I appreciate you, sir. TexEx.

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  16. BB - hope you are encouraged by all the support. No one is right all the time.

    FYI, this does not seem like a topping process to me. Topping process involves big breaks and recovery. This looks more like consolidation before another move up. Plus EURO is going to 1.36 - 1.38, as you and I both know.

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