Friday 25 January 2013

SPX Closed Above 1500. Did we Erase 2008?

There you have it.

Depending on whether you walk on hoof or on claws we are either on the verge of a giant collapse ( just round the corner for last 5 years?) or about to see another bull era when stocks will go up and up with the rainbows
Personally, I think it would be foolish to marry either of the positions.

All I know and believe that there are real value stocks out there which are beyond my reach today and I would love to buy them at 50%-60% discount and sit on it for ever. I would like to buy KO for less than $10, XOM for $20 and so on. Unless we get a massive sell off, how in our life time we will get that opportunity? And no I would not touch any tech. company for long term investment.

So yes, I would love a huge correction but I do not think that would be the end of the world.

For last may posts I have written that we are on buy signal and as I have shown yesterday, we have been long from beginning of January, only to harvest now. And we are not going to short the market yet, however over bought the indices / indicators are. The corrections will come, nothing lasts for ever. And I am very hopeful that God willing, we will be on the right side of the market even then. No need for any dramatics, no need for any fancy charts or Analogues, no need for splitting hair with macro economic s**t. No need to cry foul that Ben has distorted the market. Because those are beyond our control and don't help us in anyway to make money. Talking of Ben, I don't know how his gamble will play out in the long run, but I would like to share the following chart with you.

At least he did succeed in bringing down the unemployment with his QEs. What will be the unintended consequences, we don't know. So let us just concentrate as to how we can beat the market and make some money, if we may please.

Right now the best entertainment is being provided by Ichan vs. Ackman

It has become personal with insults flowing all around.

Back to markets, SPX closed green 8 days in a row. I think even the 9th day will be green. I have been writing not to short or front run and hopefully you have listened to my unsolicited advice. Overbought is not the reason to short the market and it is not that overbought yet.

I wish ZH and other similar bloggers who are unable to come out of the shock of 2008, would shut up and instead of crying of all possible conspiracy theories, would tell their readers how to beat the system and make real money. But I also know that that is not going to happen and in the next 20% correction they will claim vindication. Alas!

Anyway, lets enjoy the ride while it lasts. Right now, the most favoured position is "Cash". And yes, cash is a position. I think the upside is limited but the indices may churn here for a while.

That's all for this weekend. Have fun folks and remember that Feb. Subscription is open now.


  1. Fuck you Prechter!
    Fuck you too useless Hochberg!
    Ha! DOW 400? Fuck YOU!

    I hope you lose 99% of all your subscribers. I wish there be a fucking class action against your useless newsletter! You just want people's $20 per month to fill your fucking pockets.

    What the fuck happened the the left hand translated turn of the fucking 7.25 yr cycle? Torched by the Bull Market!
    What the fuck happened to the war against Fibonacci and Bernanke? the market is kicking your fucking ass!
    The Bull Market is kicking RN Elliot's ass!

    Your fucking calls for the market have been 100% WRONG since 2009!
    I hope you lose 1,500 subscrbers everyday until you start laying off your useless socionomics analysts.

    Do you fucking know how much money your subscribers lost? The money lost by your subscribers could probably rescue Greeec!
    Where the FUCK is the fucking USD going? The market is about to make all time new highs and you had your readers in T-bills? FUCK YOU!

    Once again: FUCK YOU PRECHTER!

    Your have Prechterized so many people. Remember, what goes around comes around!

    1. Dow will never go to 400, may be 5000 sometimes in 2014 but before that we had the chance to more than double our money.
      But you are not alone to feel frustrated with Prechter.
      He has single handedly ruined reputation of Elliot Wave theory but people still pay him money to read his shits.

    2. Blimey...I thought I was the only sucker to have thrown in the Pretcher towel recently...well said there! I subscribed to EW for a good number of years and it didn't make me a dime. Their take on the market is as predictive as... (expletive deleted). I've no doubt the third wave will arrive at some jucture before I pop my cloggs, but I for one ain't goin' to wait. Lets hope my investment in BB will make up for those long lost years!

    3. I think today the most important thing is not to get married to any one idea but be as flexible and opportunistic as possible while at the same time avoid taking much risk.

  2. Tuesday is a MAJOR Bradley Turndate January 29. Could be that is a sell if we reach 1523 or higher by Tuesday. Then a 100 point drop to 1420 or higher.

    1. I doubt if we will reach 1523 but who knows. There is no sell signal yet.

  3. I started to watch that clip but couldn't stand the pomposity level of those clowns. And people still giving them money to manage or listen to their advices, opinions. True face of wall street jerks.

    1. You are so correct. Bunch of pompous jackasses.

  4. You are often right about the market direction but always advising to sit on cash.
    Sad for you and your reader. Investing is about daring to pull the trigger and managing the risk.
    Why waisting so many time by wrtting a beautiful comment and the conclusion is cash is a position.

    You should use your correct viws on the market and daring making money........

    1. You think stock market is a place to gamble?
      We make money with minimum risk.
      I don't think you have been in this game for long.

  5. A man always has 2 factors for what he does; an excellent one, and the actual one.