Thursday 24 January 2013

SPX Green 7 Days In A Row!

For the 1st time since 2007, SPX crossed 1500 although it did not close above. But it was green 7 days in a row which has happened only 4 times before. 

So green or red tomorrow? Honestly, it does not matter, 

Are we done here?

I would say not yet. May be there will be some profit taking tomorrow, little red, entice some new short positions but not the turning point you are looking for.

Subscribers of this blog went long at the beginning of January and we have remained long till now. Readers were advised to harvest gains yesterday and today morning. We knew that 1500 will be taken out in SPX and for most parts, we have made handsome gains on our position.

The following is a snapshot of our Jan. 2 Newsletter:

Market Analysis & Trade Ideas

For the Week Jan 2- Jan 4, 2013.
Happy New Year.
I have been out of the equities for almost half the year and I don't think I have missed much, except the emotional roller coaster ride. In the mean time I have played in Crude, Nat. Gas, Gold and other commodities. Now I see some definite trends developing in equities and I would like to share some of my trades herein below.
Before I start, few techniques or principles worth remembering are:

  • Always scale in. For e.g. the equities that I am going long, I will scale in over two weeks or more. For commodities, I will scale in in a shorter time frame.
  • Always have stop loss. Nothing is guaranteed in the world of trade and investment and we must guard against a trade going against us.
With that preamble, the following are my trades for this week and next.
  1. Long SLB. 1/3rd each on this week and week afters
  2. Long ANR. 1/3rd each on this week and week afters
  3. Long NEM. 1/2 each this week and next week.
  4. Long XIV. on 4th Jan
  5. Long SSYS. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week.
  6. Long DDD. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  7. Long HZU.TO (Canada) or AGQ (US).1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  8. Long CDE. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  9. Long NUGT. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  10. Long EWG. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  11. Long EWN.1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  12. Long SLW.1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  13. Long INDL. 1/2 this week and 1/2 next week
  14. Long Gold through LEAPS. I am buying Dec. 2013 calls on GLD
You can do your own math as to how we have done so far. Subscribers have got regular emails / notifications, sometimes multiple times in a day, suggesting, when to exit, take profit or harvest. We cut losses on one or two trades but let our winners run.And most of our trades have been winners.
I will publish the final scorecard of our January buy list in 1st week of Feb. along with our exit prices.
By the way, all the above trades are done and now is not the time to chase them. The easy money has been made. We have closed these trades.

And if you think Jan. was good, Feb. is going to be still better.

We will not trade the market with any pre-conceived notion. We don't care if the market goes up or down. We just want to be on the right side of the market. Neither a bull nor a bear. Even the best  makes a wrong call from time to time. 

Here is Peter L Brandt today morning:
Peter Brandt ‏@PeterLBrandt

When I am wrong, I am wrong $AAPL Looks like attempted bottom has failed.

And he is as respected as they get. So I will not be an exception. But the key is to have more winners on a consistent basis.

Apple got hammered. Regular readers know that many moons back I have mentioned about Apple cycle topping and Apple closing below $ 500. That time it looked like a fantasy and now folks can't get out of the door with Apple. And the cycles did not bottom yet.

Readers know that one of thing that differentiate me from others is my call for patience. I tell readers that we do not have to be long or short always. There are times, when I prefer cash. That advice in itself is more important than anything you can find anywhere. Let us call it "Art of not losing money". Again, I do not claim to be right all the time. Rather, the effort is there to increase the odds of success and hopefully my subscribers will vouch for that.

Back to markets, although SPX could not close above 1500, the bull case is still strong and we most likely will see another push up soon. Rarely such a momentum stops on a dime. But we will not pick up nickels in front of the steamroller. We have achieved 96-98 % of our price target and we will take our money and run. And no, we will not short the market because we are not done yet. At the same time, we don't want to be greedy. And while SPX gave up most its gains for the day, VIX was not that strong either. It closed a whooping $0.23 cents higher than yesterday. I have no doubt ZH will be writing a lot about that huge gain in VIX.

So if you would like to benefit from some very unconventional yet highly successful trading methods, try out the subscription for just $49 for a month and judge it for yourself. It is much less than a cup of Starbucks' cappuccino every day. The subscription for Feb will remain open till 2nd Feb. when the Newsletter for Feb. will go out. By the way, subscribers get the Newsletter every Sunday and daily updates if any action is needed. 

That's all for tonight. Don't front run and trade safe. GLTA

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