Monday 11 February 2013

Dairy Of A Reluctant Bear.

It has been a while I posted in the blog. But the fact is, there has not been much to write home about.
We were long for the whole month of January and when SPX started flirting with 1510, we exit all long positions and have been in the sideline since then.
The indices have been chopping and churning and grinding higher very slowly. In the process, killing all bears and convincing everyone else to BTFD
Sentiments are at all time high:
And indices are in the overbought territory.
However, overbought can remain overbought for a long time, till no one is left to sell and everyone is a buyer. When we start hearing about SPX 1600, we will know that the gig is up.

So we are not front running. Subscribers know the levels to watch and when the sell signal will trigger. Knowing those critical levels have helped us to avoid the whipsaws. We are watching VIX very closely and that is another of our indicators.

We have also stayed away from commodities including PMs and while we did not short it, we fully anticipated the sell off in gold and silver. Now we are waiting for the sell signal in oil and Nat. Gas. There is no play in grains or soft commodities either.

All in all, we are practising patience and keeping our emotional health in good shape. Not to mention preserving our capital as well.

Hope you all are having fun in this BTFD market and although I have turned into a reluctant bear, I am now a patient bear waiting for the fish to land in my mouth.
Good luck trading everyone.

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