Monday, 3 December 2012

Howdy Folks?

Well, here goes some scribblin' that's a little past due,
But I reckon I'm always a-thinkin' 'bout you

Was it a boring day or what? In the morning crude zoomed past $ 90 for few minutes and I was thinking: aw snap. But the equities obliged and gave back most of the early morning gains. But for the correction to gather momentum, SPX will have to close well below 1400. I suppose it will happen soon but since I am not a day trader, the daily movements does not really affect me that much. All I care now is where the indices are going to be by mid-December.

The high point of the day in SPX was 1423.73. Darn close to my target of 1425. So for now I consider target met but will wait for it to close well below 1400 for confirmation of the intermediate term top.  I am not expecting a huge drop but a retest of the lows at 1344 can be expected. I do not know if it will make a lower low although that would be the preferred outcome. So keep the trading time frame short and stops tight.

I see a kind of double top in Apple and the up momentum appears to be weakening. I don’t think it will happen tomorrow but if Apple makes one more attempt to rally and fails, it will take the NDX down with it.

I am more interested in Crude for now. I think Crude has made the cycle high today morning and the reversal can be considered as a bearish reversal. I am not sure about tomorrow but if crude closes below $87, chances are we will see more correction ahead. So bit of wait and watch situation for now. In any case I do not have any higher price target for Crude and I think the high probability trade is down.

Nat. Gas gave a sell signal but the chart pattern is oversold in short term. I think Nat. Gas will test its high again. In the past week, Nat. Gas has tested $3.90 area few times and has failed there. If it again fails there, we will short it for a quick trade.

I am neutral on Gold but have a tiny short position in Silver. Only when Silver closes below $ 33, I would think of adding to the short position.  Everything now depends on US$ and should it make a bottom here, we will see all risk assets correcting together. And I think they will. So we just wait patiently.

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Hope you will be able to get some juice out of it. I have quite a few readers expressing interest in the paid service. I will email a sample report this week. So if you are interested send me an email. Please forward the post to your friends. Tell them that we do not have any fancy charts, no macro economic analysis, no other BS here. Just market direction and bullet point market actions.

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1 comment:

  1. thanks. Lots of juice here, and the market is ready to tilt over, but for how long. That guys at do not think long. But that is another thing. We are in xmas period now prone for rallies.