Friday 28 December 2012

Sell Signal At Long Last.

At last we have that elusive sell signal but time wise we are reaching the last stage of down cycle. Had this signal come 15 days back, I would have jumped on the short side. But today I would stand aside and let it pass. But at least it gives confirmation to the path that lies ahead.

After hours Indices Futures are down a lot. /ES has gone down below its earlier low of 1390 and at some point was down almost 2 %.
Let us see where does it closes.

Last trading day of the year is normally bearish. As per Stock Trader's Almanac, Nasdaq down 10 out the last 11. And I do not see what kind of last minute deal they can make when both sides want to jump the cliff.

So it is going to be a very interesting week and New Year. Some juicy tit bits as to how 2013 may shape up:

First Five Days in January Indicator -  This one has a very nice track record. The last 40 UP first five days of the year have been followed by full-year gains 34 times for an 85% accuracy ratio. This includes 2012 which had a 1.8% rally in the first 5 days. The average gain for the first 39 of those years was 13.6%.  The results are less reliable when the first 5 days in January are negative, showing just a 47.8% accuracy rate and an average gain of 0.2%. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 posted a gain for the first 5 days of the year in just 6 of the last 15 Post-Election Years.

Do you want to make a guess ?

We are preparing for the new year with lots of cycles about to bottom and host of signals about to come through. From January, the posts would be irregular and all buy / sell / hold or wait signals will be emailed to the subscribers. Click on the “Donate” button on the left hand side just below the “Home” and pay $ 49 if you would like to join the service. In the subject, please write Monthly Subscription and you are all set.

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. It has been a great journey with you all and I wish everyone of you happiness, health and prosperity. Have a great weekend folks.


  1. Will you no longer be updating this blog?


    1. I will but less frequently. I will try to do it everyday but I know I am not going to have time.

  2. E-minis had a very bad day, and I can only imagine how many people are long above 1400

    Every rally or ramp is a sale now...
    Or better sell it now and meet at 1200 later in 2013.

  3. ES suddenly drops 50 points, then in 5 days again 25.

    I see 3 things:
    1433 is a brick, 1450 is a gift and also crowd is very long here. Perfect setup. - cot for S&P500

    1. If you remember one of my earlier post, I wrote that 1380 would be a nice level. Yesterday /ES reached that level. Lets see how it goes in the coming week.

  4. My TVIX doing fine the last couple days, think I will just leave it go without stop loss sell order on it I am thinking.

    1. This one has lost much of its value over time, so please be careful and remember to harvest gains in time.